From tariffs and trade wars to elections and sanctions, the global economy has certainly seen a lot of changes over the past 12 months. At a high level, though, economists remain optimistic. The World Economic Outlook (WEO), for example, has projected the global economy’s growth to reach 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019. On that same note, the World Bank predicts that activity in advanced economies will grow 2.2 percent in 2018, while emerging markets and developing economies are projected to strengthen by roughly 4.5 percent. Still, some economists have suggested that the global upswing has peaked with growth becoming “unsynchronized” across many countries.
“Among advanced economies, growth divergences between the United States on one side, and Europe and Japan on the other, are widening. Growth is also becoming more uneven among emerging market and developing economies, reflecting the combined influences of rising oil prices, higher yields in the United States, sentiment shifts following escalating trade tensions, and domestic political and policy uncertainty.” – World Economic Outlook Update, July 2018
Understanding how these macro-trends impact individual countries is a key part of the Marketplace Expansion Index. That’s why, as part of our 2019 analysis, we’ve defined a new category to watch: The Big Movers. Consisting of eight countries (one new entrant, three that have moved up the rankings, and four that have moved down), our Big Movers highlight the markets that have seen significant change over the past 12 months.
Big Movers Up
The newest entrant to the Expansion Index has a large, high-growth ecommerce industry but is hindered by an economy heavily reliant on cash and a poor logistical infrastructure. Read more about Nigeria.
France 5 Rank 15, Previously 20
France’s local population is very supportive of the sharing economy paradigm but the local government is still finding its feet in regulating the economy. Read more about France.
Japan 5 Rank 17, Previously 22
Japan has the world’s best payment infrastructure, providing a great foundation for digital marketplaces. Read more about Japan.
South Korea 5 Rank 6, Previously 11
Excellent payment infrastructure combined with high broadband penetration makes South Korea a very attractive market for digital marketplaces. Read more about South Korea.
Big Movers Down
India 5 Rank 10, Previously 5
India continues to provide a major opportunity for marketplaces. Read more about India.
South Africa 6 Rank 35, Previously 29
Deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and complex regulations have led to a decline in the attractiveness of South Africa for global marketplaces despite continuing growth. Read more about South Africa.
Turkey 6 Rank 36, Previously 30
Turkey is feeling the impact of international sanctions causing foreign marketplaces to reevaluate their growth plans. Read more about Turkey.
Indonesia 8 Rank 26, Previously 18
A plunging local currency and domestic economic uncertainty presents a unique opportunity for global gig platforms to provide certainty and stability for skilled Indonesian gig worker. Read more about Indonesia.